Knockdown: How It Works, Odds and Payouts

Knockdown is the carnival milk-bottle game. Six bottles are stacked in a pyramid and you have three balls. The fewer balls it takes to knock them all down, the more you win: clearing the pyramid with the first ball pays 13x, with the second 1.8x and with the third 1.1x. Leave one or two standing and you still get a small payout.

Coins are virtual and have no cash value. The result of each ball is drawn on our servers when the round starts, so throw timing and aim have no effect.

How a round works

1. Tap Throw. You have three balls and six bottles.
2. Each ball either misses or knocks down at least one standing bottle.
3. Between balls you may cash out. If all six are down, the round ends at once and pays for the ball you used.
4. After the third ball, any bottles still standing set the pay.

How a ball behaves

A ball misses 30% of the time. When it hits (70%), it knocks down at least one of the standing bottles, and each bottle falls with a 55% chance (given that at least one falls). That means a hit often takes several bottles at once. For a first ball at six bottles:

With fewer bottles standing, the chances for later balls change: one bottle left is knocked down on any hit, so it falls 70% of the time.

Pay table and chance of each result

Weighting each pay by its chance gives 0.968, a 96.80% return. The shared limits for all games are on the odds page.

What the table tells you

• The pyramid is cleared in 44% of rounds, but most clears need the second or third ball and pay only 1.8x or 1.1x.
• The 13x prize is a 1-in-51 shot. It needs all six bottles to fall to the first ball.
• Standing bottles are a consolation. One left pays 0.45x and two left pays 0.17x, which are partial losses.
• 16% of rounds pay nothing. Three or more left means no payout, and a clean miss with all three balls (2.7%) is part of it.

Cash out between balls

The cash-out value is the exact average of the rest of the round. After the first ball leaves two bottles standing, cashing out pays about 1.03x. If four are left it is about 0.57x, and if the first ball missed, with all six still up, about 0.36x. After a second ball that leaves one bottle, it is about 0.90x. These are true averages, so cashing out and throwing on return the same on average. Which you choose is about how much risk you want.

A worked example

You bet 100 coins. The first ball knocks down four bottles, leaving two. The cash-out button shows about 1.03x, or 103 coins. If you throw again, the second ball clears both bottles only 26.6% of the time (1.8x, or 180 coins), knocks down just one 43.4% of the time and misses 30% of the time, and the third ball then decides whether you finish at 1.1x, 0.45x or 0.17x. Whichever you choose, the long-run average is the same, so the decision is whether you prefer a sure 103 coins or the spread of outcomes.

Max win and caps

The largest Knockdown payout is 13x the bet, for a clean sweep with the first ball. That is far below the game-wide limits of 50,000x and 250,000,000 coins per round.

What is the same as other carnival games

Knockdown, Duck Shoot: How It Works, Odds and Payouts and Mole Bash: How It Works, Odds and Payouts are cash-out games with a fixed pay table where the cash-out is the exact average of the rest of the round. Knockdown began as a Tower look-alike but plays nothing like Tower: How It Works, Odds and Payouts now: one miss does not end the round. For why a table with a 13x top still feels low-swing, see Volatility in Casino Games: Why Results Swing.

Tips that hold up

• There is nothing to aim at. Every ball is drawn in advance.
• Cash-out is not a better deal. It always equals the average of the rest.
• Do not count on a clean sweep. It is a 1-in-51 result on the first ball.
• The last ball matters least in pay. Clearing on the third ball pays only 1.1x.

Play with limits

A three-ball round is short and easy to repeat. Decide your limit before you start, and see Play Safely in Cashout Arcade: Limits and Breaks for tools. Cashout Arcade is for adults aged 18+, uses virtual coins and has no real-money prizes.