Bull & Bear: how it plays, odds and payouts
Bull & Bear in Cashout Arcade: call a chart up or down and win or lose the size of its move. How the 3% fee works, the move odds and the 1.94x top pay.
On this page
How Bull & Bear plays
- Tap the bull for UP or the bear for DOWN.
- Set your bet and ring the bell. The chart runs for about seven seconds.
- The big number is your result: what you win or lose, as a percent of your bet.
- The further the chart runs your way, the more you win; against you, the more you lose (the 3% fee is already in the number).
The rule people miss: Only where the chart ends counts: the swings on the way do not.
Pick UP (the bull) or DOWN (the bear). The chart ends at a final move: a whole percent from 1% to 100%, up or down. It never ends flat, so there is no tie.
Picked the way it moved: you win that percent of your bet. Picked wrong: you lose that percent. A 3% house fee comes off everything paid back: you get back your bet x (1 + move) x 0.97, or your bet x (1 - move) x 0.97. Example: a 37% move your way pays 1.3289x your bet; a full 100% move pays 1.94x; a full 100% move against you loses the whole bet.
The big number on the chart is your result: what you win or lose as a percent of your bet, with the fee already taken (a 37% move your way shows +33%, a 37% move against you shows -39%). At the close it matches the coins exactly.
Up and down are equally likely (50% each). Small moves are common, big runs are rare:
1% to 10%: 37.2%. 11% to 30%: 38.3%. 31% to 59%: 18.7%. 60% to 99%: 5.6%. A full 100%: 0.3%.
Exact table: a move of k% (k = 1 to 99) has weight 1000 x 0.955^(k-1), rounded, and a full 100% has weight 60, out of 22,050 for each direction (starting 1000, 955, 912, 871, 832 and ending 13, 12, 11, 11).
The table is the same up as down, so whichever side you pick returns 97% of what you stake over time.
One move is drawn per round. The chart is drawn from it afterwards: the path in the middle does not decide anything; only where it ends does.
At a party table, everyone settles on the same move at the same odds as solo play. Perks do not apply at party tables.
Bull & Bear is a prediction-style game. You call a chart up (the bull) or down (the bear), set a bet and ring the bell. The chart runs for about seven seconds and ends at a final move between 1% and 100%, up or down. If you called the direction, you win that percentage of your bet; if you did not, you lose it. Coins are virtual and have no cash value.
How a round works
- Tap the bull for UP or the bear for DOWN and set your bet.
- Ring the bell. One final move is drawn on our servers: a whole percent from 1% to 100%, up or down. It is never flat.
- The chart is drawn to end at that move. The big number shows your result as a percent of your bet.
- Payout is the bet times (1 plus or minus the move) times 0.97. The 0.97 is the 3% house fee.
Only where the chart ends counts. It can swing against you and come back, and none of it changes the result.
What the move pays
| Move | Called right pays | Called wrong pays |
|---|---|---|
| 1% | 0.9797x | 0.9603x |
| 10% | 1.067x | 0.873x |
| 25% | 1.2125x | 0.7275x |
| 50% | 1.455x | 0.485x |
| 100% | 1.94x | 0 |
A right call on a move of 1% to 3% still pays less than the bet. From 4% up, the right call pays more than the bet.
How big the moves are
Up and down are equally likely, and the same size table applies in both directions. Small moves are common and big ones are rare.
| Size of the move | Chance |
|---|---|
| 1% to 10% | 37.2% |
| 11% to 30% | 38.3% |
| 31% to 59% | 18.7% |
| 60% to 99% | 5.6% |
| A full 100% | 0.3% |
A move of k% has a weight that falls by about 4.5% for each extra point. Because up and down mirror each other, the average move is zero and either pick returns 97% over time.
Worked example
You bet 100 coins on UP and the chart closes up 37%. Your payout is 100 x 1.37 x 0.97 = 132 coins (1.3289x), shown on the chart as about plus 33%. If it had closed down 37%, you would get 100 x 0.63 x 0.97 = 61 coins, about minus 39%.
Max win and limits
The top result is a full 100% move on your side: 1.94x the bet, about a 1 in 735 chance. A full 100% move against you loses the whole bet at the same rate. The game-wide limits (50,000x the bet, 250,000,000 coins per round) cannot be reached. Volatility is low.
What matters and what does not
- UP or DOWN: a pure coin-flip call. Neither side has better odds.
- The chart path, the candles and the timing: they are drawn after the result and decide nothing.
- Bet size: scales the win or loss, not the odds.
Read how the fee works in house edge explained. The published odds are on Odds.
Frequently asked questions
Can a right call still lose coins?
Yes, on a small move. A 1% move your way pays 0.9797x the bet, because the 3% fee comes off everything paid back. You need a move of 4% or more on your side to come out ahead.
Does the chart path matter?
No. The final close is drawn first and the chart is drawn to match it. The swings on the way decide nothing.
Is up or down more likely?
No. Up and down are equally likely, 50% each, so neither pick has an edge.
Can the chart end flat?
No. The smallest move is 1%, so there is always a winner and a loser.
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