Volatility (definition and examples)
Volatility is how far a game's results swing around its average. Compare low and high risk Wheel and Slots at the same 97 percent RTP with real figures.
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Volatility, also called variance, describes how widely a game's results swing around its average. A high-volatility game pays rarely but pays big. A low-volatility game pays often but pays small. Both can have exactly the same RTP.
Statisticians measure it with the variance, the average squared distance of results from the mean, or its square root, the standard deviation. The standard deviation is expressed in "multiples of your bet", which makes it easy to compare.
Same return, different ride: Wheel
Cashout Arcade's Wheel lets you choose a risk level. Take a 10-segment wheel at 97 percent RTP:
| Risk | What the segments pay | Chance of any win | Standard deviation per bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 3 segments pay 0, 5 pay 1.164x, 2 pay 1.94x | 70% | about 0.70x |
| High | 9 segments pay 0, 1 pays 9.7x | 10% | about 2.91x |
Both average 0.97x per spin. On the low wheel you win seven spins in ten but rarely more than a stake or two back. On the high wheel nine spins in ten return nothing, and the tenth returns 9.7 times your bet. Over a short session the high wheel's results are over four times wider.
Volatility inside one game: Slots
The three-reel Slots game has the same idea. At the low-risk setting about 68 percent of spins pay something and the top prize is about 182x. At the high-risk setting about 30 percent of spins pay and the top prize is 2,964x. The standard deviation climbs from about 3.1x your bet to about 16x. RTP is 97 percent in both.
Common misconceptions
- "High volatility means a better chance to win big." It means bigger wins that are less likely. The average is unchanged.
- "Low volatility is safer." Each bet still costs 3 percent on average, and over thousands of rounds low volatility can lose just as steadily. It only makes a run of results smoother.
- "Volatility changes the odds of the next spin." It describes the shape of the game, not what happens next.
Volatility is why a short session can feel lucky or unlucky even when nothing about the game changed. It also relates to Hit frequency (definition and examples), which counts how often anything pays at all. For the longer explanation see Volatility in Casino Games: Why Results Swing, and for each game's own rating check the Odds page.