Loot box (definition and odds rules)

A loot box is a purchase, or a reward that can be bought, that gives a random item, so the buyer does not know in advance what they will receive. Card packs, mystery boxes and gacha capsules are all versions. It resembles gambling because you pay a known price for an uncertain prize.

Why they are debated

The pattern is the same as a slot machine: pay a fixed amount, get a chance-based result, and rare outcomes are held out as the prize. Critics point to the variable rewards, to rare items being worth more than the price, and to repeated purchases when the result disappoints. Whether they count as gambling is treated differently from place to place.

What Apple requires

Apple's App Review Guidelines, section 3.1.1, say that apps offering loot boxes or other mechanisms that provide randomized virtual items for purchase must disclose the odds of receiving each type of item to customers before they buy. The rule exists so that the chance is visible before the money is spent.

A worked example of what a disclosure should show

Suppose a box costs 100 coins and gives one of four items:

At 0.5 percent, you would on average open 200 boxes to get the Legendary once, though a single player may get it in one box or never in 400. The probability of at least one Legendary in 100 boxes is 1 minus (0.995 to the 100th power), about 39 percent, so even after 100 openings there is about a 61 percent chance of never seeing it. That is the number a purchase decision should rest on.

Cashout Arcade does not sell loot boxes

The published odds state that purchased coins and Club Pass never buy a random item: you always receive exactly what the shop shows. Random results in the app come from the games and from free rewards such as the daily Gift Wall, where the chance of each prize is published. Those use virtual coins that carry no cash value.

Common misconceptions

• "A loot box is a safe way to get a rare item." The expected number of purchases can be large, and nothing guarantees a result.
• "After many failures, success is near." Each box is independent unless the game states a guarantee. See Gambler's fallacy (definition and example).
• "Loot boxes only exist in video games." Trading cards and blind-bag toys work on the same principle.

See Social Casino Spending: How In-App Purchases Work for spending advice, and Social Casino Terms: Coins, VIP, Sweepstakes Defined for other app and purchase terms.