Odds and maths

Basic strategy (blackjack definition)

Basic strategy is the play that gives a game its best long-run return. Cashout Arcade Blackjack returns 97 percent only with it. See what weak play costs.

On this page

Basic strategy is the set of decisions, worked out by calculating every possible hand, that gives a skill-based game its highest long-run return. In blackjack it tells you, for every combination of your hand and the dealer's up card, whether to hit, stand or double. It cannot beat the house edge, only keep it as low as the rules allow.

What the rules change

The best play depends on the exact rules of the table, so a chart copied from somewhere else can be wrong. In Cashout Arcade's Blackjack, cards are drawn from an endless deck, the dealer stands on every 17, and you can hit, stand or double on your first two cards. There is no splitting and no insurance. Basic strategy for those rules returns 97 percent.

What weaker play costs

The published odds give the return of simpler ways of playing the same game:

How you playReturn
Basic strategy, doubling when it pays97%
Never doubling95.6%
Hit until 17, like the dealer92.4%
Always stand82.2%

So the gap between careful and careless play is large. Always standing gives away more than five times the normal edge.

Two decisions, worked out

Using the game's rules, assuming the dealer does not have blackjack and ignoring the game's payout scaling, the average result per coin staked is:

Hand against dealerStandHitDouble (per base coin)Best
Hard 11 against a 6minus 0.154plus 0.334plus 0.667Double
Hard 12 against a 2minus 0.293minus 0.253not offeredHit
Hard 12 against a 6minus 0.154minus 0.171not offeredStand

A 12 looks like a hand to stand on, since hitting can bust. But the dealer's 2 is a weak card the dealer still often beats you with, so the odds favour taking a card. Against a 6 the dealer busts so often that standing wins.

Common misconceptions

  • "Basic strategy wins money." It is the way to lose the least. A game with a 3 percent edge still keeps 3 percent at best.
  • "Follow your gut on a hot streak." Cards in an endless deck are independent, and the strategy does not change with past hands. See Independent events (definition and examples).
  • "Any chart works at any table." Rules shift the answers.

Coins are virtual with no cash value. For the full decision chart derived from these rules see Blackjack Basic Strategy Chart for Our Rules; the Odds page lists the returns above.