Baccarat Rules and Odds: Player, Banker, Tie

Baccarat is a card game in which you bet on which of two hands, Player or Banker, will finish closer to 9, or on a tie. You make no decisions after the bet: the cards are dealt and a fixed set of rules decides whether each hand draws a third card. Everything that follows (probabilities, payouts, house edge) comes from those rules. This guide explains them in order, then gives the exact odds and the payouts in Cashout Arcade's version.

Card values and totals

Each card has a point value, and a hand's total is the sum of its cards modulo 10 (only the last digit counts).

So 7 + 8 = 15, which counts as 5. A hand of 9 + 4 is 13, which counts as 3. The best total is 9; the worst is 0. Because four of the thirteen ranks are worth zero, a zero-point card shows up 4 times in 13 and every other point value 1 time in 13.

How a coup is played

1. You bet on Player, Banker or Tie.
2. Two cards each are dealt: Player, Banker, Player, Banker.
3. If either hand has 8 or 9 (a natural), the coup ends and the higher total wins. A natural happens on the first two cards about 34.3% of the time.
4. Otherwise the third-card rules apply, below.
5. The hand closer to 9 wins. Equal totals are a tie.

The third-card rules

Player's hand: draws a third card on a total of 0 to 5, stands on 6 or 7.

Banker's hand: if the Player stood, the Banker draws on 0 to 5 and stands on 6 or 7. If the Player drew, the Banker's action depends on its own total and on the value of the Player's third card:

These are the standard punto banco rules (the same table is on the Wizard of Odds baccarat page) and the game applies them automatically. In an infinite-deck model the Player takes a third card about 50.4% of the time and the Banker about 43.6% of the time.

Odds of each outcome

There are only three outcomes, and the rules above produce them with these probabilities. Cashout Arcade deals every card independently, which makes the probabilities exact (computed by walking the full tree of card values), and they are close to those of an eight-deck casino shoe.

Banker wins more often than Player for a structural reason: the Banker acts second, so it sees the Player's third card before deciding whether to draw. The edge is small, about 1.2 percentage points.

What the bets pay in a casino, and in Cashout Arcade

In a casino:

• Player pays 1 to 1.
• Banker pays 1 to 1 minus a 5% commission on wins, to offset its higher win rate.
• Tie pays 8 to 1 (some tables 9 to 1).
• On a tie, Player and Banker bets are returned (a push).

Casino house edges, from the eight-deck figures on the Wizard of Odds page: Banker 1.06%, Player 1.24%, Tie 14.36% at 8 to 1. The Tie bet is the worst bet on the table by a wide margin.

In Cashout Arcade the same rules apply, but there is no commission or special tie payout. Each bet's payout is solved so that it returns exactly 97%, counting the push on ties:

(Total return includes your stake: 1.9602x on a 100-coin bet returns 196.02 coins.)

Check the Player row: 44.615% x 1.9602 + 9.543% x 1 = 0.8745 + 0.0954 = 0.970. The Banker row is the same sum: 45.843% x 1.9077 + 9.543% = 0.8746 + 0.0954 = 0.970.

Because Banker wins more often, it pays less per win (1.9077x against 1.9602x). The two hands are priced so that choosing between them cannot give you an edge. That is a difference from a casino, where Banker is the cheapest bet; here no bet is cheaper than another.

Where ties come from

A tie is the only outcome the Player and Banker bets cannot win, and it is rarer than people expect when they see it clustered. The 9.543% total is made up of ties at each total:

Ties on 6 and 7 are the most common, partly because those are totals where the third-card rules stop hands from drawing: a Player on 6 or 7 stands, and a Banker on 7 always stands, so two hands often finish level there. Together the ties add up to roughly one coup in ten, which is why the Tie bet pays about ten times your stake.

How long a session lasts

Each coup takes a few seconds, and in a casino a table deals dozens of them an hour. The cost is the same 3% of what you stake in Cashout Arcade, but the shape differs by bet. Player and Banker win a little under half the time and pay a little under double. The Tie bet wins about 1 coup in 10.5 and pays about ten times the stake, so most of a Tie player's session is steady small losses punctuated by occasional spikes. The volatility guide explains why the same 97% can feel so different.

Worked examples

Example 1: a natural. Player 4 + 5 = 9. The coup ends there, whatever the Banker holds, unless the Banker also has 9 (a tie).

Example 2: Player draws, Banker decides. Player gets 2 and 3 for a total of 5, so the Player draws. The third card is a 7, making 12, which counts as 2. The Banker holds Queen and 3, a total of 3. The Banker's rule at 3 is: draw on any Player third card except 8. The Player's third card was a 7, so the Banker draws. A 6 arrives, making 9. Banker 9 beats Player 2: Banker wins.

Example 3: Banker stands. Player stands on 6 (6 + Jack). The Banker holds 5, and because the Player stood, the Banker draws on 0 to 5, so it draws. It takes a 2, making 7, and Banker 7 beats Player 6.

Common mistakes and myths

• "Banker is always the best bet." True in a casino because of its lower edge; false here, where every bet returns 97%.
• Tie as a value bet. A tie happens about 9.5% of the time. A fair payout would be about 9.5 to 1 (10.48x total); the casino 8 to 1 payout is far below that, hence 14.36%. Our 10.1649x is scaled to a 3% edge instead.
• Reading "roads." Baccarat tables display score boards of previous results (the bead plate and the "big road"). Each coup is independent, so those boards record the past without telling you anything about the next result. See the streaks guide.
• Betting systems. Raising bets after losses changes the shape of your risk, not the 3% cost. See the house edge guide.
• Expecting skill. You cannot influence a coup. Your only decisions are which bet and how much.

Responsible play

Baccarat feels calm and elegant, which can hide how quickly rounds pass. Decide on a time limit first, treat the coins as entertainment, and stop when it stops being fun. You can play it in the Baccarat game, and the odds are published on the Odds page.